It was a really successful season for the BTB team when it came to football overall, but especially NFL. We've given out multiple free first touchdown scorers and other plus money plays in these articles, BTBJesse had I think three losing weeks all season and he gave clients a 10:1 ticket on current MVP favorite Aaron Rodgers, and BTB hit 8 MAX plays in football. Now, we've come to the playoffs and I have no doubt they will crush it once again. You can signup for the entire package by clicking above and getting the entire Playoff plays.
The Bengals and Raiders did play earlier in the season so we at least have a glimpse of how the two teams matched up once before. The playoffs, environment, and game itself is still different so it can't be blind handicapping. For example, Joe Mixon scored two touchdowns in their first game, that doesn't mean that he will score another two in this game. Conversely, it doesn't mean he won't score another two touchdowns. My point is, don't just assume because it happened once, it will happen again.
I'm going to start with a first touchdown scorer prop. I actually don't have a great feel for which team will score first in terms of the touchdown, which usually means the field goal props are a good way to look as the first score, too. For this game, though, I'm going to grab Tee Higgins and Darren Waller. The strange thing is that the Bengals have given up many touchdowns to each position - RB, WR and TE, so identifying one clear advantage is really tough. They allowed 13 rushing touchdowns, 15 WR touchdowns, and 8 to tight ends. Waller is the go-to guy for Derek Carr and everyone in the stadium knows that. Doesn't mean it can be stopped.
The Raiders are actually fairly good at preventing wide receivers from finding the end zone. We know that Ja'Marr Chase has a good connection with Joe Burrow, but maybe he isn't the best option. One option might be getting CJ Uzomah at +1500, but he has a total of 6 red zone targets this entire season. My play is on Tee Higgins. Higgins has 110 targets on the season, only 18 less than Chase, and has the same number of red zone targets. Higgins +900 and Waller +1200 for first scorer. I'll also play them both for any time scorer at +125 and +180, respectively. Since we are talking lunch money here, Jacobs and Chase are both +750, so feel free to drop a sub sammich on them if you want, but you know where I'm putting my money.
I do feel more confident that the first score of the game will be a field goal. I'm going to play both the home and away field goal props and if one hits, we get profit. The Raiders are +320 and the Bengals are +350 to have the first score of the game a field goal. I think there will be some nerves as both quarterbacks start their first ever playoff game - which might mean more running back work to start. I expect them both to maybe fall short of the end zone on the first couple drives but have a shot at a field goal.
All of these numbers are from DraftKings and I'm going to take the bite on the Wildcard Specials they have listed. Carr has been connecting with Hunter Renfrow lately, and we know he loves Waller. They need to combine for 12+ receptions for us to get a +150 payout. They are the most targeted players on the Raiders so this is realistic. Combined, they've averaged 5.6 receptions per game. Renfrow averaged six receptions per game by himself. The other one is Joe Burrow +1600 to throw for 350 and three touchdowns. This is highly unlikely to happen, but he's been on a tear lately, if he gets into his groove, this is a realistic line for him, especially if the Raiders can score. I wouldn't play this at like +1300 or something, but I think we get good value at 16:1. However you play these, hope they hit and good luck.
- David
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