Ah, the week of the Big Game. You can go anywhere for a breakdown on the game, but have one spot you NEED to go for the picks for the game – right here. Buy the Super Bowl with Props package to get everything you need from BTB and Jesse. For now, let us feast and get some plus money lunch money picks. If you’ve followed the past two of these, you would’ve made some nice money. Let’s do the same for the biggest game of the year.
BTB already gave out Yes to a successful 2-pt conversion at +230, something you definitely should take a look at.
We have talked about first touchdown scorers multiple times in the past few weeks, but we have no trend like Davante Adams and the Packers. My personal favorite to score first is Mike Evans at +1000 (all values on DraftKings). He has scored the first touchdown in the past two playoff games for Tampa. Kansas City has given up passing touchdowns on 67% of touchdowns against them. So far in the two playoff games they have had, they’ve given up three passing touchdowns and only one rushing. 70% of touchdowns scored against Tampa this season are through the air. Plus, if memory serves, Hill had a solid week in one quarter against Tampa this year. Take Evans to score first and take Hill (+600) on the KC side. Let’s put one order of chicken fried rice on both of them.
True story, I called the Kansas City Chiefs and 49ers organizations last year to ask them what flavor of Gatorade they were going to use. KC never got back to me, the 49ers representative laughed and then hung up. In any case, last year orange was the color. It is currently +100. I’m going to toss an egg roll on this because I like KC to win.
We talked a little about this in the first touchdown scorer section, but KC gives up touchdowns through the passing game over running game. Brady is +130 to throw over 2.5 touchdowns. I think they will have to work through the passing game and keep up with Kansas City. I’ll take this one and put an order of Egg Foo Young on it.
Tommy Townsend, at this point you’re probably asking “Who?”, the kicker for the Chiefs, has had 11.3% of his punts result in touchbacks. That’s fourth highest in the league. He is +250 to have a punt that results in a touchback. I’ll throw an order of crab rangoon on it and hope that the Chiefs get stopped around the 50-yard line on a drive.
Total yards of the shortest touchdown over 1.5. I really like the over on this one at +160. This is something that has happened at roughly 50% of the games that the teams have played this year. Kansas City has had a 1-yard touchdown in exactly half of the games they’ve played (including playoffs), and Tampa has had one in 10 of their games. My thought though is I have 99 yards to work with and basically a coin flip of chance. Why not put some shrimp and peapods on this?
I think the Bucs will drive on the Chiefs in the first quarter, but not get a touchdown. Yes, I’ve heard about Brady’s teams only scoring three points in nine combined Super Bowls. This is more of a gut thing. I expect the Chiefs to bend, but not break against the Bucs and I expect the Bucs to score a field goal on their first drive. At +230 to score over .5 field goals in the first quarter, I’ll take a shot with an Egg Drop Soup and BBQ pork chow mein. If you want to take a bit higher odds and see that being the first score of the game overall, I like the +420 Bucs getting a field goal as the first score of the game.
For the last lunch I’ll drop, I am taking Tyreek Hill and Travis Kelce to score. This is at +170. They are easily the favorite targets of Mahomes, and they are both targeted heavily through the game and in the red zone. Hill will eventually get behind the Tampa secondary. Kelce is going to be targeted in the red zone. They are both trusted options and in the top five of their position in the NFL. I’ll put down an order of both General Tso’s and Orange Chicken.
Hope we enjoy this feast.
- David Troy
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