Grass has been cut, chalk has been laid, big names have switched teams, and pitchers and catchers are reporting. Yep, we are ready to play ball. Let’s take a look at the MLB division by division. These are not BTB or Jesse’s picks – in order to get all of their daily plays and their future plays, you need to sign up for the package by the link attached. Trust me, it will be well worth your investment – they had a 37 – 21 record in the postseason last year.
NL West
Los Angeles Dodgers – After their World Series, the Dodgers did what every big spending team does they had a giant fire sale and got rid of their pieces…. Wait, they did the exact opposite of that. They resigned Justin Turner, they got Corey Knebel (which could be an underrated move), oh and they signed the Cy Young winner, Trevor Bauer. Don’t forget, too, they got David Price last year who did not pitch for them so they also will have another former Cy Young winner added to the mix. Their biggest competition is going to be the Padres who they will play 19 times this season. You might see some World Series hangover here, but there is so much talent, I won’t bet against them winning more than 102 games. I do like Walker Buehler at +1000 to win the Cy Young, though. Another option is to put bets on one of the Dodgers pitchers to have the most wins a good staff with a ton of expected wins gives some nice opportunity.
San Diego Padres – The Friars are looking to dethrone the Dodgers and spent most of the offseason working to gear up in the arms race for the National League Pennant. They got two extremely talented ones in Yu Darvish and Blake Snell. Don’t forget, they also have Joe Musgrove and Mike Clevinger on their squad, plus they strengthened their bullpen a bit with Melancon. Last season without the stud pitching staff, the Padres had a winning percentage of .617. In order to hit their over they actually can play worse baseball, “only” needing a .586 winning percentage. I’ll happily take my chances on the young, hungry, and potentially risky team with over 94.5 wins. I’d also stay away from the Padres winning the division, only +200 is not worth it to me. Yu Darvish could lead the majors in strikeouts and at +1200 there are definitely worse bets you could make.
Now we move onto the bottom feeders, the Giants, Diamondbacks, and Rockies. The Giants did make a few moves this offseason, but nothing that was headline worthy. Tommy La Stella stays on the bay and comes over from Oakland. He is a good hitter, but not really sure that this does much for a team that did have a glimpse of playoff hope last season. Their pitching staff should keep them in most games against average teams and on great days they will hang around with the likes of the Dodgers and Padres. Posey coming back brings some optimism, but he is not the player he once was. I don’t see much opportunity for them to get the over, but I also am not comfortable taking the under on them.
The Rockies recently decided that they’d rather go at the season without their best player sending him to St. Louis for a couple players and a package of ribs. They now turn the squad over to Trevor Story and a youth movement. I suppose it makes sense to let the other teams in the division compete while you rebuild for when their window is closing. No matter the case, the Rockies have a number of 64.5 putting them as the lowest listed with the Orioles. I could see this team losing 100 games. I would lean under the wins, but wouldn’t feel like this is a lock.
Finally, the Diamondbacks are the third team in the division predicted to have an under .500 record. They only had a .417 winning percentage in last year’s shortened season. I don’t expect them to be that much better than they were last year and their current win total has them at a .462 winning percentage. They didn’t do much to make their team better from last season to this season. I also feel like if someone is having a good season, they are likely to trade them away to a contender. I’d take the under and be comfortable with having some room expecting they win maybe 70 games.
- David Troy
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