I love sports, but my first love of sports was, and still is, the NBA. I love basketball, even with the flaws the league has and the frustration of teams taking the night off, I still love the NBA and always will. This will be my fourth year of doing NBA picks for BTB and I'm looking forward to another year of success. You can buy the 30-day package on the site and you can read the Eastern Conference preview. Last season my win total futures didn't do well, but we cashed our one and only MAX play and 10u on Tyrese Maxey winning the Most Improved Player Award.
Oklahoma City Thunder, 57-25, 1st in West, 2nd Round Exit
There may not be a better team in the NBA in terms of depth, age, and assets. The team has a true superstar in Shai Gilgeous-Alexander who is likely to once again be in the MVP conversation. They added a defensive wizard and a great role player in Alex Caruso. Jalen Williams is potentially a superstar. Chet Holmgren is coming into his sophomore season and looks like a potential superstar as well. Isaiah Hartenstein is a bigger addition than you'd think as well, being a rebounder and hard-working role player. Isaiah Joe and Lu Dort on the bench, along with Jaylin Williams gives the team great depth. The biggest question is health and if they are going to be able to take another step forward. I'm not taking a side on their win total, but there is no way I'd play the under on them. The team looks destined for the conference finals this year.
Denver Nuggets, 57-25, 2nd, 2nd Round Exit
The Nuggets won the championship two years ago, and then went out with a whimper in Game 7 of the 2nd round last year as the Timberwolves took them down in convincing fashion. Nikola Jokic led the team to a championship, but he had good depth on the bench and probably the best starting five in basketball. That's gone. Jamal Murray has flashes of greatness - and showed it in the playoffs last year - but it isn't enough. Kentavious Caldwell-Pope is gone as well which hurts the bench more because Christian Braun (perhaps a better shooter, but worse defender) has to start now. The Nuggets championship window, with this roster, is closed. Jokic deserves better but certainly makes any team a competitor.
Minnesota Timberwolves, 56-26, 3rd, Lost in Conference Finals
They need to just hand the keys over to Anthony Edwards and get out of his way. Karl-Anthony Towns had one of the worst shooting slumps I've ever seen at the worst possible time: in the Conference Finals. There is still the question of what to do with Rudy Gobert, the only defensive player of the year that you never really want on the court. The team added Joe Ingles and Rob Dillingham could be a sneaky good draft pick. The key is if Edwards can take another step forward. Just slap a picture of Kevin Durant everywhere and he will never lose excitement or urge to prove himself.
Los Angeles Clippers, 51-31, 4th, 1st Round Exit
For three years the Clippers looked like the team to beat. They had Paul George and Kawhi Leonard and ended up with nothing to show for it. Kawhi rarely plays because of injury and I'm personally done counting on his availability. When he is there, and ready, he still seems to be a superstar and make his team a contender, but it is few and far between. They still have a deep team, but health is an issue. I'm not sure they will get to a .500 record this year if Leonard misses extended time, but the books have them at 40.5 wins. I feel like this team is deep enough that they will get to at least 41, but I'm fairly done betting on Leonard.
Dallas Mavericks, 50-32, 5th, Lost to Celtics in Finals
So, this is the year that Luka gets the MVP, right? I mean he was deserving this season and carries a team to the Finals. This seems like the year that voters would finally give it to him. They have the defense, they have the offense, their bench is well equipped and Klay Thompson should be an upgrade over Tim Hardaway Jr. I think they get over 49.5 wins.
Phoenix Suns, 49-33, 6th, 1st Round Exit
Kevin Durant, Devin Booker, Bradley Beal. You put those three on the team and as long as they are healthy they should get to 41 wins, right? Last season the team barely played together and they won 49 games without any real bench. They now have a couple of point guards on the roster, something they didn't have last season, and they have a decent backup at each position. Health is still the primary concern for the team.
Los Angeles Lakers, 47-35, 7th, 1st Round Exit
Bronny James is here to save the day! JJ Redick is here to save the day! Dalton Knecht is here to save the day! The team showed us what they are last season. If Anthony Davis is healthy, he is an MVP candidate. LeBron James is somehow still one of the best 20 players in the league. Can the rest of the team offer enough to help them win games? I actually like Redick leading the team, and think he will make smart decisions. Will James let it happen? We will see. I can't imagine he retires after this year. I expect him to play until he can have a retirement tour and make sure he gets extra attention.
New Orleans Pelicans, 49-33, 8th, 1st Round Exit
The Pelicans made a splash in the offseason by adding guard Dejounte Murray. I think this was an underrated move, as they now have three strong ballhandlers, a better defender on the perimeter, and the ability to allow Murray to run the offense, moving CJ McCollum to off-ball like he was in Portland. It really doesn't matter, the fate of the Pelicans relies on two players: Brandon Ingram and Zion Williamson. When both are on the floor, the ceiling is probably closer to the Western Conference Finals. I like their over 46.5 wins.
Sacramento Kings, 46-36, 9th, Lost in Play-In
The Kings now have two of the best clutch players in basketball. With De'Aaron Fox and DeMar Derozan, this team will be deadly from the mid-range, but that isn't really the game of basketball any longer. I like the Kings. I'm not sure that they are destined for the top of the division or conference, but they should be potentially able to skip the Play-In this year.
Golden State Warriors, 46-36, 10th, Lost in Play-In
The Warriors still have Steph Curry, but the other splash brother, Klay Thompson, is no longer on the team. He was, however, replaced by a guy who might be a better shooter in Buddy Hield. If nothing else, this team should still be exciting and fun to watch. They haven't made enough changes to become a true contender, but that doesn't mean they won't make a trade.
Houston Rockets, 41-41, 11th
I don't know if Ime Udoka deserves all the credit for the success of last season, but the team certainly improved. Perhaps it is getting improvement from Alperen Sengun, the veteran leadership of Fred VanVleet, or even a bit of Dillon Brooks' defensive intensity. Expect them to take another step forward this season. They still will need to deal with the inconsistent play of Jalen Green and Jabari Smith, but the Rockets should be a play-in team at the least.
Utah Jazz, 31-51, 12th
If they played 82 games at home, the Jazz would be a playoff team, or at least potentially one. They were 21-20 at home and 10-31 on the road last year. Last year the team was expected to tank, but they were actually too good to do that. I think that will likely be the case again unless they can find a way to trade away Lauri Markkanen. I still expect them to be a bottom four team in the West.
Memphis Grizzlies, 27-55, 13th
The Grizzlies record from last season is a bit misleading considering they had Ja Morant for just nine games last season. In fact a lot of games it seemed like they were going out of their way to lose. Now Morant will be back (though he just tweaked his ankle the other day during a preseason game). If Morant is on the floor, the Grizzlies are close to a title contender. If he isn't they are Play-In bound at best. We will have to see if Zach Edey can keep up with the pace of the NBA. If he can, the Grizzlies will be a true threat in the West.
San Antonio Spurs, 22-60, 14th
The story here is how good will Victor Wembanyama be this year? Last year he won Rookie of the Year without much of a battle. Then he took over in the Olympics, leading the French team to the championship game. Now he has Chris Paul, giving the team much needed leadership. Outside of that the Spurs are still a huge work in progress. Harrison Barnes will also provide a bit of 3-and-D, but the team still isn't a true contender, no matter how good Wemby is.
Portland Trail Blazers, 21-61, 15th
On paper, it seems like the Trail Blazers have the makings of a good team. Scoot Henderson showed some flashes of success as he was adjusting to the league. Anfernee Simons is known for microwave scoring. Deni Avdija is a good three-point shooter, an addition that should help the team. Jerami Grant is willing to do a lot of the things most others won't but he isn't a true superstar. Deandre Ayton is... who knows. He can be good but isn't consistent. They used a first-round pick on Donovan Clingan and I think he will eventually take over for Ayton. Shaedon Sharpe is a sneaky choice for 6th man of the year or most improved.
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- David
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