Ask the average fan, most will tell you that their team’s GM is a moron, an idiot, or some other less-than-flattering description. That’s part of what makes predicting any draft so difficult. Even looking back at every draft in any sport there is always an article years later that is some version of “Redrafing the XXXX draft” because it never turns out perfect. We won’t worry about that though, we are going to focus on a few plays that might be work dropping some money on for the NBA Draft.
Last year there was some question around who would be drafted first. It was either LaMelo Ball or Anthony Edwards, and James Wiseman sandwiched in-between. This year has a similar feel for the first three picks, with the exception being that Cade Cunningham will be going #1 overall. Second and third, the consensus seems to be Jalen Green and Evan Mobley, respectively. After those three the field is wide open with more trade talk in recent year than ever before.
One spot you might want to sprinkle is the fourth pick. I can’t see Mobley going worse than fourth in this draft. It is possible that someone trades up to get someone else in the first three picks. If you want to take a light shot on this, take Mobley at 4th pick for +200. To be honest, I don’t see it happening, but wild things happen on draft night.
Franz Wagner is one player I’m looking at to go under 9.5 at -140. The juice is a bit high on this one, but there is value there. Most mock drafts – which are basically documentations of how inaccurate most draft experts are – indicate that he will go under 9.5 and it shouldn’t be much of a stretch. I think he could go as low as seven and high as nine.
Jalen Johnson, to me, is an ideal pick outside of the lottery. His over/under is 14.5 which puts him right on the bubble for being taken there. I think he has potential to be a strong contributor to a team, but he quit this past season and even when he did play, it wasn’t really lottery quality play. I’m taking him at over 14.5 for his draft position at -130.
One last play I like is Davion Mitchell to be a top 10 pick at +100. He has a good skill set that a lot of teams are encouraged by and believe his development could last. Mock drafts are showing him going all over the place, both under and over his current pick listing of 12.5. The Warriors are reported to really like him at the 7th overall pick. I personally see them taking him if they don’t trade out of the spot to try and grab a superstar. So basically it comes down to this – if you think the Warriors pull off a trade, take his over 12.5. If you think they stay where they are, take him at a top 10 pick and don’t pay the juice. No matter what the number one rule for these are to play with caution. These are less predictable than games and series.
- David Troy
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