At the beginning of the season, we broke down every team in every division. We won’t be doing that again at the midseason, but what we are going to check out is opportunities to find good odds and value on different teams or players to play before the end of the season. As always, these are not BTB’s or Jesse’s plays. If you want those, click “Buy Packages” above and you can join to get their daily plays and any value picks they add in over the course of your 30-day subscription.
I’m going to give you my justification first… I don’t think the Red Sox pitching is good, and I feel like their hitting has overperformed. They are tied for the best record in the American League and only really have the Rays nipping at their heels in the East. Simply, I trust the Yankees more than the Red Sox to make it, and trust the A’s more than the Red Sox to get the last spot in the Wild Card race. This is a long shot, but I like the value of +350 on the Red Sox to not make the playoffs. Note, all lines are found on DraftKings.
Have you seen what the Brewers are hitting? .220. That’s low, second to last in baseball low. They are in first place right now. I can’t imagine it lasts even with this great pitching staff that carries the sixth best ERA in baseball. I’m playing the Brewers at +330 to not make the playoffs. Even though I am not a believer in the Giants, I think the three teams in the NL West makes the playoffs. So, basically the NL Central and East get one team. I don’t think the Brewers hold this spot. It likely will be the Reds or Cardinals to make the playoffs in my opinion.
As far as value in the awards races, I like Lance Lynn to be Cy Young at +400. He is on a team that is likely going to the playoffs, he has the lowest ERA in the American League, and is 8 in the league in Ks/9 innings. For stat geeks, he is also third in WAR behind only the favorite, Cole, and Kyle Gibson of the Rangers.
As far as MVP, Ohtani is going to get it in the American League baring injury or something crazy happening. The National League is a bit more open. DeGrom is the front runner, but I think if the Reds have a great second half, Nick Castellanos could get some attention. He is leading the National League in batting average, in the top 20 of almost all other major hitting category and if he brings the Reds to the playoffs (something I think their GM will help facilitate) I think he gets some votes if not the majority. At +3500, take the value now because if the Reds do improve thanks to him, you won’t find it again. Same logic and reasoning could apply to Trea Turner, but I think the Nationals are less likely to find the playoffs than the Reds.
The one other play I like right now isn’t plus money, but does have value. Cleveland has a nice rotation, and while their lineup needs some hitting help, they find ways to win. The win total for the Indians is 81.5, which puts them one game over .500 for the season. In the first half of the season they were three games over, they need to go the rest of the year at basically .500. I’m taking over 81.5 as they still get to play the Tigers, Royals, and underperforming Twins multiples times the rest of the season.
- David Troy
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