After just a disastrous start (that actually wasn't as bad thanks to hitting a home run prop), these plays have been better lately. That doesn't mean to bet your house on them. I'm still being cautious and picking fewer spots, I suggest the same thing to you if you tail. I hope we can keep this going and make progress.
Josiah Gray over 5.5 Ks +125 (DK)
Gray has been a pitcher that I don't like to support often, but lately he does seem a bit better. In six of his last seven starts, he's allowed less than two earned runs in each of the games. But, more importantly for this, he's been striking people out with much more consistency lately. In five of his last six starts, he's struck out six or more hitters. On the season he is about 50/50 to the over which means we are still getting value. He has four games of five strikeouts, too so he is getting close in games that he goes under. I think this is worth taking.
Logan Webb over 5.5 Ks +125 (DK)
Webb is not really known as a strikeout pitcher, but this season he has been pretty decent with going over this number. He's gotten six strikeouts or more in 10 of his 17 starts. At home, he has struck out six or more hitters in five of the nine games. The Diamondbacks hitters also have 10 strikeouts in 25 at-bats against Webb. That includes two strikeouts of Dallas Keuchel in two at-bats. Keuchel pitches tonight against Webb, so if we can get another two Ks on him, we only need four total.
I lean towards Chris Sale under 4.5 at +130 today too. That would only be 15 pitches for him to hit this, and the Rays do strike out a lot, but they've already said he is going to be limited to 85 pitches. I'll probably play this for a half unit.
Good luck!
- David
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